All four leaders of Nevada’s Legislature believe a tax increase of some kind will be necessary to balance the budget once lawmakers convene in 2011.
As I reported tonight on 8NewsNow, Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (a Democrat), Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio (a Republican) and Assembly Minority Leader Pete Goicoechea (also a Republican) have all said publicly taxes will be part of the 2011 budget solution.
And now, Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley confirms via text message (too late for the show, but never too late for the blog!) that she, too, believes taxes will be necessary to close a budget gap that some say could approach $3 billion.
That means 100 percent of the Legislature’s leadership — regardless of political party — acknowledges what the two candidates for governor will not: Taxes will be part of the mix.
Whether it will actually happen remains to be seen. First, as Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Sandoval often says, we’re not sure of the final size of the deficit, at least not until the Economic Forum meets before the Legislature and produces a final number. Second, Buckley won’t be speaker in 2011; she’ll be forced to leave by term limits in November. (Her expected replacement — Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera — didn’t return calls seeking comment today.)
Third — and perhaps most important — just because the Legislature’s leaders agree doesn’t mean their colleagues will. It takes two-thirds (28 members of the Assembly and 14 state senators) to pass a tax increase, or to override a gubernatorial veto of one. And the final makeup of the 2011 Legislature won’t be determined until the November elections.
But, as I said on the TV machine, this is increasingly becoming less a political problem, and more a math problem. It is possible to balance the budget with cuts alone, but the consequences to Nevada (especially schools, which make up just more than half the general fund) would be dire enough to make all but the most anti-government lawmaker blanch.
So, with political cover provided by their colleagues in the Legislature, why doesn’t Rory Reid or Sandoval moderate his stance on taxes? One word: Fear. Fear that, even if they tell the truth, a public conditioned to hearing what they want to hear from politicians will reject them, the same way Walter Mondale was rejected in 1984 when he said he’d raise taxes. And that’s an especially potent fear in a recession with a 14.2 percent unemployment.
Still, it would be nice if, for a change, somebody vying to lead Nevada in these dire times decided to simply tell the truth. I’d love to see what happens. Because either Reid or Sandoval will be the next governor. And, no matter what they say now, they will face the hard reality of that looming deficit anyway.
Tags: Barbara Buckley, Bill Raggio, Brian Sandoval, Nevada Legislature, Pete Goicoechea, Rory Reid, taxes
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